Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent recovery has boosted investor profitability, but historical cycle data shows the market has yet to pass a decisive turning point.
Profitable supply increased from 46.2% on June 30 to 58% on July 21. This was the lowest level in 2026. During this time, more than 10% of the circulating supply was turned into profit as BTC jumped from the mid-$50,000s to $60,000.
However, at the time of this writing, the measurement had returned to 55.2%.
The previous cycle’s highs were around 69 percent, 64 percent, 83 percent, and 77 percent, although previous recoveries in bear markets were at least 64 percent. While long-term holders are still accumulating, short-term holders have continued to sell close to cost basis, with STH SOPR currently at 1.0.
This combination indicates that selling pressure has eased. But, Bitcoin Profitability is still needed to move into the 60% to 65% range before reaching the stronger recovery pattern seen in previous cycles.
Whale profitability powers Bitcoin’s recovery
While Bitcoin’s overall profitability still hasn’t reached the levels experienced in previous recovery cycles, current whale trends suggest there is growing belief below the surface.
As prices recovered, investors started to become profitable again after suffering losses for a short time. In particular, holders of 100-1,000 BTC returned unrealized profit. This shift is important because investors who regain profitability often face a choice between gaining earnings and continuing to hold.
Currently the data appears to support the latter. The largest whale groups remained profitable throughout the entire decline, with only minor declines in profitability. This suggests that whales avoided significant coin distribution at these times.
This pattern also mirrors March and April, when similar profitability recoveries preceded short-term improvements. But historically whale profitability makes more sense when it coincides with continued accumulation.
Therefore, the next phase depends less on the whales making profits and more on whether they keep cryptocurrencies off exchanges rather than locking in gains.
Price action tests recovery
The recent pullback did not invalidate Bitcoin’s improving on-chain base. Instead, BTC consolidated after rallying from the $62,000 low to around $66,700, suggesting buyers are still absorbing supply from newly profitable holders.
The price continues to defend the $64,000 zone, keeping the short-term structure intact. Meanwhile, the RSI is close to 51 as of press time and the MACD has flattened, indicating that momentum is cooling rather than strengthening the selling pressure.
Losing $64,000 would weaken this view and increase the risk of deeper profit taking before buyers attempt another move towards the $66,700 resistance again.
