According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, institutional demand for Bitcoin will return stronger. The analyst noted that US spot BTC ETFs could follow the “triumph and pain” pattern of gold ETFs and eventually rise to a new record high.
Balchunas added that gold ETFs were briefly the world’s largest ETF in 2011, but remained in a downward trend for another eight years to regain that spot.
It took it back again for a short time in 2024, and a similar “two steps forward, one step back” could also occur for BTC.
Bitcoin ETFs may be following the same scenario: spectacular gains, painful declines and recoveries that may test investors’ patience
Spot Bitcoin ETF is still strong but…
Bitcoin price dropped by almost half, from $126,000 to $64,000. In May and June 2026, the crypto asset briefly dropped below $60,000 while spot BTC ETF outflows reached $7 billion.
Balchunas emphasized, however, that only 10% of spot BTC ETF holders remain, compared to one-third of gold ETF investors.
Another positive sign that BTC may show resistance and try to defend the $60k support was the long-term holder (LTH) supply. Even though they have gradually reducing exposure Over the past few weeks, this group has yet to make any net sales.
According to Bitfinex analysts, BTC’s recent drop below $60,000 was due to deleveraging and ETF outflows as LTH conviction is still intact. However, analysts warned:
While ETFs lost nearly $4 billion in June, their 30-day net position remained positive. Flows turned positive for three consecutive sessions. The risk is that LTHs will finally move towards net sellers.
However, amid renewed US-Iran tensions, these two safe havens have not seen the strong investor interest seen earlier in the year. Over the past three months, gold ETFs recorded outflows of approximately $11 billion, while spot BTC ETFs suffered losses of $6 billion. In other words, gold lost twice as much blood as BTC.
It is unclear whether BTC will attract more capital and act as a hedge if the escalation of the West Asian crisis extends into the third quarter.
However, the oil price rose above $80 at the same time. Bitcoin (BTC)s The horizontal structure below $65,000 signals that shocks in the energy market could still derail the cryptocurrency’s rise.
Final Summary
- Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas predicted that US Spot BTC ETFs will rise to a record high, citing historical patterns for gold
- Meanwhile, rising oil prices could limit BTC’s bullish potential amid renewed rallies in West Asia
