Macro FUD is easing, markets are deleveraging, and Fed policy is changing.
According to CoinGlass data, approximately $1.8 billion in liquidations have hit the crypto market in the last 72 hours; More than 75% of the total write-off came from long positions, in line with Bitcoin’s weekly decline of more than 5%.
The flush wasn’t entirely unexpected. BTC has been consolidating around $60,000 for about two weeks, allowing leveraged long-term risk to accumulate.
When the price lost this range, this move naturally triggered long liquidations, allowing traders to take positions to continue the uptrend. In this context, Ansem’s Q3 BTC thesis begins to make more sense.
According to the analyst, the flush did what it was supposed to do, resetting excess leverage and shaking off weak hands. Since positioning is now much cleaner, Bitcoin could be in a better spot to regain momentum if spot demand comes back into play.
On the macro side, the analyst argues that the background is still supportive. As the return to gold begins to wane after a four-week rally in the US dollar, flows into AI have led to many making huge gains that have yet to be realized.
With macro FUD easing, the market is increasingly turning to risky assets.
In this context, Ansem changed his mind Bitcoin (BTC) The bearish-to-bullish stance sees the start of the third quarter as a clean, long setup. However, unrealized losses continue to mount among long-term BTC holders, raising the question of whether the market is underestimating downside risk.
Bitcoin setup: Macro headwinds and LTH stress signals
Is it still too early to call Bitcoin’s current decline a buying opportunity?
Even as macro FUD around the Strait of Hormuz cools, Fed rate hike expectations have jumped from 11% last month to over 27%, heading into the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 29. This shift adds another layer of uncertainty to BTC’s structure, even as liquidity conditions show early signs of easing.
In this context, the increasing number of shareholders suffering unrealized losses is becoming more important. As the chart below shows, approximately 11 million BTC is currently missing, marking the highest level on record.
According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s drop to $59.1 thousand pushed 10.83 million BTC underwater. LTHs currently hold 14.8 million BTC, accounting for roughly 75% of the circulating supply, with approximately 37% currently in the red.
Under the circumstances, Ansem’s call may have been a bit premature.
With no strong catalyst coming, Bitcoin’s spot demand He still looks weak. In this context, it may be premature to frame the recent pullback as merely a short-term deleveraging move. Meanwhile, macro FUD continues to weigh on sentiment among long-term investors.
This naturally increases the risk of capitulation of LTH. Overall, this makes the strong Q3 Bitcoin setup less convincing for now as the market potentially underprices downside risks.
Final Summary
- Leverage is resetting and macro conditions are improving, so Bitcoin could rebound if spot demand returns.
- Weak demand, Fed uncertainty and rising LTH losses increase the risk of further declines.
