to cardThe latest analysis of venture capital fund performance reveals that it remains extremely concentrated across much of the sector, with outstanding performers extending their lead in the group. The report, based on data from 2,906 funds spanning 2017 to 2025, highlights how a handful of successful startups have achieved outsized results that best define progress investors.
comprehensively research reportCarta highlights the growing inequality at the top end of returns.
For 2019 vintage funds, the TVPI’s 90th percentile reached 3.01 times by year-end, well outpacing the 1.9 times in the 75th percentile.
The difference between results in the top quintile and the top quartile dwarfs the gaps further down the curve (between the 75th percentile and the median (1.33×) or the median and the 25th percentile (1.02×)). Similar patterns are seen in every vintage from 2017 to 2024.
For example, in 2017, funds in the top percentile achieved 4.08x TVPI, while the 75th percentile achieved 2.53x and the average gained 1.89x.
This distribution reflects the basic dynamic of venture capital: While a small number of companies generate 100x or even 1000x returns, most investments generate modest returns or no returns at all.
to card He also noted that funds that capture even one or two such outliers show extraordinary multiples that more than compensate for the portfolio’s underperformers.
The result is a winner-takes-most environment where the top tier continues to distinguish itself. Many encouraging signs have emerged in Q4 2025.
Median net IRRs for 2021 and 2022 have finally moved into positive territory, reaching 1.4% and 0.7% respectively.
Earlier periods (2017-2020) currently show an average IRR of at least 4.2%, consistent with the classic J-curve model where early negative returns give way to appreciation as portfolios mature.
Distributions to limited partners are also accelerating: More than half of 2020 vintage funds have now recorded some DPI, and about 15% will start their first payments in 2025.
between 2021 fundsabout a third began to bring back capital; this figure is just under 25% for both the 2022 and 2023 yields. Dry powder levels remain high in new funds.
2025 revenue still retains 72% of the $12 billion in unspent capital committed.
The 2024 cohort retained 53%, while the 2023 funds retained 35%. These three periods combined add up to more than $19 billion in unused capital.
Distribution rates predictably increased with age: only 16% of 2021 funds remain unspent, and pre-2021 harvests show minimal dry powder change.
fundraising patterns are continuous with subtle shifts. Roughly 89% of funds manage under $100 million, but instruments over $100 million (representing only 11% of the total) control 52% of the $120.7 billion in total commitments.
The $25-100 million segment commands the largest absolute capital pool at $40.7 billion.
New fund size distribution remained relatively stable; 36-38% of vehicles fell into the $1-10 million range and 10-11% exceeded $100 million.
However, in 2025, capital allocation is slightly less skewed towards mega funds (56% versus 62% in 2024).
to card He noted that median LP numbers have remained stable or decreased modestly, especially for larger vehicles, while anchor check sizes show that volatility has decreased in recent years.
to cardThe update for Q4 2025 points to a maturing but still highly asymmetric asset class. While newer vintages continue to create value and return capital to LPs, the top performers remain undecided, at least for now. Inside venture capitalThe data confirms that exceptional performance is rare; But when it happens, it more than justifies the search.
