Since the low of the Independence Day sell-off nearly a year ago, the S&P 500 is up 41%.
From the bottom of the 2022 bear market, the S&P 500 is up 104%.
Since the bottom of the Covid Crash in March 2020, the S&P 500 is up 238%.
Since the bottom of the mini-bear market in 2011, the S&P 500 is up 715%.
Following the Great Financial Crisis in March 2009, the S&P 500 rose 1,292%.
Of course, buying right at the bottom of a bear market leads to good returns when followed by a bull market. Huh.
What about the tops?
From the peak just before the Independence Day selling began, the S&P 500 is up 15%.
From the peak just before the start of the 2022 bear market, the S&P 500 is up 54%.
The S&P 500 is up 124% from its pre-Covid Crash peak.
The S&P 500 is up 564% from the peak before the double dip in 2011.
Since its peak in October 2007, before the start of the Great Financial Crisis, the S&P 500 is up 524%.
Not that good but still not bad, these peaks were followed by declines of -19%, -25%, -34%, -19% and -57% respectively.
Here’s a visual summary:
Of course, no one is lucky enough to invest at the market’s lowest point during a crisis. And no one is unlucky enough to invest only at the peak of the market, right before a big drop (except right now). Bob).
Most people invest at different points along the way. Sometimes it is near the top or bottom. Most of the time it’s somewhere in between.
The important part of this data is understanding that the best and worst choices don’t matter as much as you think.
Your time horizon is more important than your ability to predict market turning points.
Further Reading:
Performance of Stock Market After Correction
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