Solana (SOL) has mostly traded in a range since the crash in early February. This range reached $78 to $92 and also represented a volatile trading day with SOL falling from $92 to $78 on March 5.
Since then, price movement has mostly remained within this 1-day candlestick, indicating consolidation is continuing. However, this consolidation may have a few surprises for the bulls.
Here’s why the next big SOL sell-off is coming
In an article on X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out why the 50-day Moving Average (MA) is important to long-term Solana price trends. The analyst noted that a pattern has existed since November 2025 in which SOL prices regained the 50-day MA but failed to do so for a short period of time.
The consolidation period below the 50-day moving average, which was at $85.43 at the time of writing, has been replaced by a selling wave since November 2025. The current consolidation could turn into another such downtrend. This puts the previous range formation on the 1-day chart into context. It may not be market participants who test local lows and form key demand areas.
In its place, solana Prices may be fluctuating ahead of a new southward expansion. The longer SOL fails to reclaim the 50-day MA and stay above it, the more likely such a sell-off will occur based on price movements over the past few months.
This also aligns with Solana’s long-term trend expectations. AMBCrypto reported in February that the next predicted level was $47.9. long term price target. This was based on a weekly structure.
The higher time frame downtrend remains intact. The retest of the 2025 low of $95.26 as resistance in March and the subsequent rejection solidified the bet that SOL would fall below the $50 round figure level in late 2026.
Final Summary
- SOL briefly retook the 50-day moving average before falling below this dynamic support once again.
- This pattern has occurred for the third time since November 2025. The previous two events were followed by consolidation and a strong sell-off.
