Bitcoin, which rose to $75,000 in mid-March, is back in the hands of sellers and is trading at $67,620.16 at the time of writing. Such fluctuations have led bettors in prediction markets to predict the future price of Bitcoin.
However, the prediction market is also divided on this issue, as Kalshi predicts:
Meanwhile, Polymarket predicted that “Bitcoin will likely fall below $45,000 this year,” with a 52% chance of that happening.
Additionally, a closer look at Polymarket reveals that there is a 43% chance of Bitcoin breaking $90,000, while around 75% of bettors predict it will fall below the $55,000 price level.
Elon Musk’s Bitcoin joke
This comes as Elon Musk, who is mostly known for his posts about. Dogecoin (DOGE)made it interesting Bitcoin (BTC) mock.
Musk added a 5-minute clip of an anime girl dancing with the Bitcoin logo behind her in the X post. Unlike Dogecoin, which generally rose after Musk’s post, Bitcoin did not step back.
In fact, the Bitcoin price traded near $67,000 before and after his post.
With so much talk around Bitcoin’s price, naturally the crypto community also seemed conflicted.
The crypto community is divided
For example, a trader using the Head and Shoulders formation confirmed the bearish trend and noted that if BTC stays below the $77,000 price level, it could move towards $48,000.
However, a move above the $83,000 level will bring the market back into the hands of buyers.
Adding further weight to the ongoing FUD, another analyst predicted that Bitcoin would likely fall to $45,000.
But not everyone shared similar sentiments, as another analyst made a comparison between Bitcoin and oil prices and noted:
Every Bitcoin parabolic phase in history has been preceded by an oil bottom.
On-chain metrics juggle between bulls and bears
This conflict between bulls and bears is also reflected in the price chart, where the technical indicator RSI stands at 50, showing that neither the bulls nor the bears are in favor.
Therefore, for a true bull run, BTC must break above the $70,917 resistance level and move further. However, a decline below the $65,000 support level will push the price into sellers’ hands.
The same thing happens with the liquidity heat map; The longer time frame of 1 month and 3 months here shows that the price will likely decline near the $64,000 magnetic zone.
However, the more recent 1-week and 24-hour time frames suggest a strong magnetic zone is near the $68.00 level.
Additionally, the decrease in 30-day active addresses indicates that on-chain and user activity is also low. Meanwhile, the social volume metric with multiple increases indicates that people may be talking about BTC, but it is unknown whether this is positive or negative.
This was a recent follow up Polymakre’s predictiont, here the bookmakers also claimed the same thing, stating that:
Bitcoin is now more likely to fall below $45,000 than to regain $100,000 this year.
Final Summary
- Technical indicators staying close to the neutral level region cause more uncertainty in the market.
- On-chain metrics without strong bullish signs suggest the bulls are struggling to regain control against the bears.
