Coinbase analysts adopted a “neutral” Bitcoin and broader crypto market outlook for Q3 2026. After hitting a yearly low of $57.8k in the second half of 2026, BTC recovered by around 10% but failed to regain the $68k or $70k level.
Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from correction to accumulation, according to Coinbase analysts led by Colin Basco. He touched on BTC’s Lost Supply metric, which is at 50% and matches previous market cycle bottoms.
With valuation compressed, we read this as the first innings of the bottoming process rather than a durable low-end that already exists.
loyalty lately echoed a similar bottom stance.
But he added that the macro backdrop remains “hawkish” and noted fears of the Fed’s interest rate hikes and the resurgence of US-Iran tensions.
Caution is still warranted. The re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, the resurgence of oil prices, and the sell-off from leading digital asset treasuries are all fueling a bearish trend in the short term.
What could reignite Bitcoin momentum in Q3?
On the positive side, analysts noted that US Spot BTC ETF flows are likely to see an incremental recovery in the second half of 2026, unlike the past six months.
But Colin insisted He said that if the Federal Reserve (Fed) takes a dovish turn and there is softer inflation pressure, they will be more constructive about the third quarter.
This, they say, will unlock liquidity, increase sustainable ETF flows and reinforce the belief that “a permanent low has formed.”
The Fed’s interest rate concerns were justified. In fact, Kalshi was pricing the probability of a Fed rate hike before 2027 (i.e. in the second half of 2026) at 70%.
Colin concluded:
Macro and in-chain images tell two different stories. For now, the trade is patience.
It is worth adding that AMBCrypto believes that: CLARITY Act Momentum can also be a short-term catalyst for the market.
BTC rose to nearly $67,000 at the beginning of the week following renewed ethics talks.
However, the asset fell to $64,000 towards the end of the week due to Democrats’ reservations and concerns. Fluctuations related to the bill’s progress strengthened its impact on short-term market sentiment.
Which Bitcoin levels are important in the third quarter?
However, from a price perspective, the main potential floor could be $53K, which is the average cost base level. Bitcoin (BTC)s The retreat continues in the third quarter. This represents a 17% decline from the current level of $64,000.
On the upside, a sustainable recovery will be confirmed if BTC reclaims $72.3k (corresponding to the 200-day Moving Average) and $76k (the Real Market Average).
Overall, there is no doubt that BTC is at this stage: bottom phase. But as Coinbase analysts noted, macro fluctuations could delay the formation of a truly durable low.
Final Summary
- Fed rate hike fears, slow ETF flows and geopolitical tensions could stall BTC’s recovery.
- If macro headwinds intensify in the third quarter, it’s still possible that Bitcoin will fall to $53,000
