Michael Saylor’s latest bullish thesis now faces its real test.
However, from a macro perspective, his views on Bitcoin (BTC) do not seem too far off. The idea that BTC’s traditional four-year cycle is “dead” actually carries some weight.
Technically speaking, the 2024 halving did not deliver the post-halving rally seen in previous cycles, disrupting the usual supply narrative.
This naturally brings us to the digital credit angle. In his post, Michael Saylor argued that the reliability of Bitcoin is increasingly tied to DeFi as TradFi institutions integrate BTC as a digital asset and shape its future development.
Simply put, rather than functioning as a speculative asset, bitcoin It is increasingly positioning itself as a credit instrument within corporate financial systems.
The timing of the tweet is also noteworthy. On the macro side, volatility still remains strong. US President Donald Trump’s warning to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz will expire at 10:05 a.m. ET on Monday.
More importantly, this is about 35 minutes after U.S. markets reopened after the three-day weekend.
In fact, analysts are now calling for a highly eventful session where geopolitical uncertainty could lead to sharp moves in risky assets, including Bitcoin.
In this context, Michael Saylor’s post starts to make more sense; In particular, he suggests that institutional adoption will drive Bitcoin’s next phase. This naturally raises a larger question: Will Saylor’s “Bitcoin won” thesis actually come true?
Has Bitcoin turned into DeFi?
For Bitcoin to truly become a digital credit, it needs to be resilient to macro FUD. However, recent price movements show that the market has not yet fully reached this stage.
Macro uncertainty has dragged BTC down almost 32% from its annual peak of $97,000, reinforcing how strongly external liquidity conditions still shape price behavior. More importantly, this trend can now be seen on-chain as well.
On a micro level, Bitcoin’s transaction fees have fallen to 2.5 BTC per day, the lowest level since 2011.
Since fees act as a direct signal of network activity, falling fees indicate softer demand, lower transaction pressure, and reduced participation. Meanwhile, off-chain belief doesn’t seem very strong either.
According to CryptoQuant data, institutional selling pressure continues as the Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) remains in negative territory, signaling persistent selling from US-based institutional flows.
In fact, the only short-term relief from this pressure occurred when Bitcoin retested the $75,000 level.
Meanwhile, Net Position Change of Short-Term Holders It shows the distribution (both in daily readings and along the 90-day trend), which suggests that STHs are still pushing Bitcoin back into the market rather than accumulating.
Taken together, falling wages, weak accumulation, and ongoing capitulation, as well as Bitcoin’s 22% correction in the first quarter and an additional 2.04% decline so far in April, suggest that BTC is not completely insulated from macro risk.
This brings Michael Saylor’s broader thesis into real market examination.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin’s institutional narrative is gaining traction, but macro volatility continues to dominate price movements.
- The lack of on-chain activity and ongoing distribution suggests that BTC is still acting as a risk asset rather than a fully mature digital credit system, challenging Saylor’s “Bitcoin won” thesis.
