Galaxy Researchsome of it Galaxy Digital (Nasdaq: GLXY), lowered its estimate CLARITY Act The chance of it becoming law in 2026 is a 50 percent coin toss. The revision, detailed in the firm’s latest weekly research note, marks a decline from the 60 percent rate set just three weeks ago. Head of firmwide research Alex Thorn He cited the tightening Senate legislative calendar as the primary factor, not any deterioration in the bill’s underlying policy values.
CLARITY ActFormally known as the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act, it represents the most comprehensive effort yet to bring federal regulatory clarity to the U.S. cryptocurrency sector.
It aims to draw clear lines of authority between Securities and Exchange Commission And Commodity Futures Trading Commissionto establish criteria to determine when digital assets qualify as securities or commodities, and blockchain developers, node operators and decentralized protocols.
Proponents argue the framework would reduce regulatory uncertainty that has long hindered innovation and corporate participation. digital assets.
The bill cleared a key hurdle when it was advanced by the Senate Banking Committee on a bipartisan 15-9 vote in mid-May.
It was soon placed on the Senate legislative calendar as calendar item 423.
But meaningful forward movement has slowed since then. Negotiations continue at personnel level Banking and Agriculture Committees They called for reconciling their respective versions of the text, but a unified bill has not been made public and no voting date has been scheduled.
Many important issues remain open. Ethics provisions continue to come under scrutiny, with some Democratic senators pushing for stronger conflict of interest standards.
Law enforcement-focused lawmakers are also pushing for adjustments to developer protections in the language.
At least two Republican senators are expected to oppose the measure regardless; That means Democratic support will be essential to reach the 60-vote threshold typically required to advance major legislation in the Senate.
The latest downgrade is largely due to mechanical constraints on the Senate floor.
With the August recess approaching and a multitude of competing must-pass items for a limited time period, including the reauthorization of key foreign surveillance authorities and the annual defense authorization bill, opportunities for expanded debate and change on a complex structure arise. crypto- The bill is shrinking rapidly.
Additional political squabbles, including a dispute over a housing package tied to unrelated election legislation, further crowded the agenda.
Galaxy analysts He warned that without a firm commitment to schedule a public review by early July, action would likely shift to September, when midterm election dynamics could make it even more difficult to get contested votes.
Despite the diminishing odds, Thorn emphasized that the bill maintains meaningful momentum.
The committee’s bipartisan approval, its placement on the calendar, and ongoing behind-the-scenes negotiations all point to genuine stakeholder engagement.
For legislation Given this scope and technical complexity, even the possibilities still represent a constructive outlook, he noted.
Positive developments, such as a public agreement on reconciled committee text or credible progress on ethics and developer protections that secure additional support from Democrats, could quickly rebuild confidence.
more than 200 cryptocurrency Companies and advocacy groups encouraged Senate leadership to prioritize individual furlough periods, underscoring broad industry support for moving the measure forward before the legislative session closes.
Adjustment by Galaxy Research reflects the constant difficulty of advancing key policy in a compressed congressional calendar rather than any fundamental loss of political will. Whether…or CLARITY Act Ultimately, transitions in 2026 will largely depend on leadership decisions made in the coming weeks.
