Since February, Ethereum has been ‘cheap’ after the price fell below its $2.3k overhead cost floor. This means more shareholders are at a loss, which reduces selling pressure and downside risks.
However, crypto analysis firm CryptoQuant warned that a durable base may still be elusive in the medium term. According to the firm, the bottom of the final market cycle could occur if ETH tags $1.15K, according to the 2022 model based on the Realized Price Bands metric.
During the 2022 bear market cycle, the altcoin set a true bottom after reaching the lower band of the metric (dotted green line).
Assuming the forecast turns positive, it means a durable base for ETH is possible if it falls 38% from its $1,885 value at press time.
There were three other signals regarding Bitcoin that showed ETH was still far from reaching its final floor price.
Ethereum: 3 signals show ETH has not reached the bottom
First of all, relatives selling pressure According to the ETH/BTC Exchange Entry Rate, ETH was only half of the level that marked the previous market bottom (green zone).
As of writing, the metric reading was 0.8, dropping to 0.4 at the 2020 and 2025 lows.
Secondly, another valuation benchmark, ETH/BTC MVRV, is also halfway to reaching the 2020 cycle lows and 2025 local market bottoms.
In two periods, ETH reversed after falling to the 0.025 oversold zone (green). As of press time, the metric was just above 0.05, indicating that it is still far from marking the market bottom signal of the past.
Similarly, relative ETH/BTC ETF holdings turned positive in the second half for the first time since last year. Although ETF demand has improved, it has not fallen to the levels seen in 2025.
In general, only spot volumes and Ethereum (ETH) Realized price bands showed that the altcoin was undervalued and close to past bottoms. CryptoQuant concluded:
However, MVRV and foreign exchange inflows are not yet at the extremes that historically confirm a bottom. Therefore, an eventual bottom and the outperformance of ETH that will follow may still take more time to occur.
However, almost a similar amount was staked, with a loss of over 41 million ETH supply, marking a record staking rate of 33%. Whether…or Strong staking demand It remains to be seen whether the downside risk will diminish further.
Final Summary
- Three key metrics showed that ETH, while cheap below $2k, may be far from a durable bottom.
- Staking demand reaches a record high in 2026; Currently over 40 million ETH is staked and over 2.5 million ETH is on the waiting list.
