Blockchain analysis platform arkham has launched a new Elo-style rating system designed to measure the forecasting skills of investors in the prediction markets, particularly those active on Polymarket. Launched on June 29, 2026, the feature aims to highlight consistent performers by focusing on forecast accuracy rather than raw profit or forecasts. trade volume.
The Prediction Market ELO system adapts well-known rating methodology from chess and competitive games. game.
It evaluates investors solely on how often their bets turn out right and how difficult those successful pitches are.
TRUE guess It increases the investor’s rating relative to the larger pool of participants.
In particular, successful bets on low-probability outcomes (where market prices are less likely) yield a larger rating boost than bets on more obvious favorites.
Most importantly, the system ignores bet size and overall profit and loss figures.
This design choice allows small-cap traders with strong accuracy records to rank higher than high-volume bettors whose advantage may come from position sizing rather than superior insight.
Losses and failed trades are indirectly taken into account through the accuracy measure, providing a clearer view of forecasting ability.
Early data The launch highlights the significant differences between the new rating and traditional leaderboards.
Elo’s top-rated trader, known as GardenerCx, specializes in short-term crypto up or down markets in five-minute intervals.
This trader maintains a 64.3% win rate on over 2,600 resolved bets and has an Elo score of 2,389.
In contrast, high PnL merchant swisstony, as it is called, made $11.4 million in profits primarily through sports betting, but recorded a lower Elo of 1.514 despite a still respectable win rate of 52.9%.
This puts swisstony in the top 7% of investors, but falls well behind GardenerCx in the skill-focused rankings.
The launch comes at a time when prediction market activity continues to expand rapidly across major platforms.
polymarket and Kalshi have seen increased volumes attracting both retail and professional participants across categories ranging from politics and sports to cryptocurrency events.
Arkham’s tool is based on the current prediction market analytical Currently tracking top performers by profit, the suite displays full position histories and connects on-chain activity to real-world assets.
By separating skill from capital allocation, Elo ratings provide market observers with a tradersand analysts are using a new lens to identify sharp forecasters.
Users can now rank and compare traders not only by who makes the most money, but also by who consistently makes better buys at varying levels of difficulty.
Ratings appear in Arkham’s prediction markets analytics section under a dedicated “Rating” tab that complements existing PnL-based rankings.
This development It underscores a broader industry shift towards more complex performance metrics in decentralized and on-chain betting environments. Like prediction markets As it matures and attracts more liquidity, tools that separate true foresight advantage from luck or leverage are likely to gain traction among serious participants.
