Following a 2.32% increase from the previous day, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $64,380.20 at the time of writing.
However, despite the rise, the leading cryptocurrency could not overcome the $80,000 resistance level, which it last reached in mid-May.
Although the RSI and MACD indicators of the four-hour chart and the narrowing Bollinger bands indicate that the bullish narrative will continue.
On-chain metrics raise red flags
However, the data obtained CryptoQuant’s latest analysis It paints a bleak picture and shows: bitcoin It is not in a bear market or a confirmed recovery, but rather in a transition phase.
On the one hand, traditional US investors remain cautious.
This is because approximately $10 billion has been withdrawn from spot Bitcoin ETFs since October 2025. Additionally, Coinbase Premium has been negative for 65 consecutive days, indicating that purchasing demand from American institutions and retail investors is not strong.
But on-chain data reveals that new Bitcoin whales are gaining more and more BTC as the cryptocurrency supply shifts from old, long-term holders to larger, new investors.
This suggests that although ETF selling pressure suggests market sentiment is weak, large buyers are secretly depleting that supply, which could prevent further declines.
Community supports Bitcoin
In fact, former NASA researcher Benjamin Cowen disregarded these negative measurements and stated:
Indeed, according to another analyst, there may be a recurring four-year cycle in Bitcoin and the larger cryptocurrency market.
According to analystAn anonymous 4chan user correctly predicted the Bitcoin market peak in October 2025, and this prediction is consistent with another independent cycle model.
He added:
If the cycle repeats, Q4 2026 could mark the next big buying opportunity and 2027 will run wild.
Similar to other views on Bitcoin, Adam Livingston claims BTC appears to be undervalued as it is currently only 19.2% above its realized price, which is the average on-chain purchase price of all BTC, as opposed to the historical average premium of 81.9%.
According to Livingston’s analysis of previous times when Bitcoin traded at comparable valuation levels, all completed historical regimes have produced two-year positive returns, with an average return of 41% after six months, 127% after one year, and 621% after two years.
Again, AMBCrypto has gained attention recently Better sentiment may have trouble spurring the broad buying needed for a sustained recovery until new capital returns to spot markets.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin price action shows bullish momentum, but on-chain metrics cast doubt.
- The community is also optimistic about Bitcoin’s upcoming trajectory.
