Oil prices rose 10 percent after President Donald Trump’s mixed signals regarding the West Asian crisis, putting pressure on Bitcoin.
Trump said the war could end in the next “two to three weeks” but added,
We will bring them (Iran) back to the Stone Age where they belong. Meanwhile, discussions continue… We have all the cards; they have none.
It was the opposite While some people hoped for an announcement that the war would end, some expectations were also in this direction.
Following the announcements, oil prices rose from $97 to $108, indicating that traders are expecting further gains.
However, performance in the markets was mixed. On April 1, the US stock market closed higher, but Bitcoin It remained at 69 thousand dollars. It extended losses on April 2 to $66,000, a 4% decline.
What’s next for BTC?
The largest part of the BTC pullback occurred before the US market opened on Thursday. This meant that risk perception could worsen, especially if US ground troops speculated to invade Iran.
In fact, prediction site Polymarket was pricing the probability of a US ground attack at 62% in April.
If such a result causes further distress in the energy market, inflation fears It may rise again. But for BTC and cryptocurrencies, the potential impact remains unclear given the historical correlation with oil.
During the West Asian crisis in March, BTC had a mixed performance. Sometimes, gathered Next to oil, as in the first half of March. However, the increase in oil prices in late March caused BTC to fall even further.
Additionally, the US tax season has begun and will end on April 15. Typically this period reduces dollar liquidity, which tends to temporarily keep BTC under pressure before a possible relief rebound in the second half of April.
Market warning continues
Interestingly, the Options market, where experienced traders and institutional investors hedged their bets, also reinforced caution.
This is illustrated by a key metric called 25-Delta Risk Reversal (25RR), which turns negative for all APR Option expiration dates. In simple terms, it meant more calls for puts (hedging against downside risk) than calls (bullish bets).
Bitfinex analysts commenting on market positioning in question There was ‘weak conviction’ and he added:
This extensive squeeze suggests that the market is awaiting a significant catalyst to drive a directional repricing of risk.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $66.2k and was still in the $60k to $70k price range amid the rise. selling pressure.
Final Summary
- BTC fell 4% to $66,000 after Trump’s mixed messages about the Iran war.
- The options market expressed caution, with Polymarket pricing the odds of US ground troops invading Iran at 62%.
