The crypto market is increasingly tracking U.S. macroeconomic conditions, often falling alongside stocks during periods of tight liquidity. This relationship now faces another test in US 30-year Treasury yields.
The yield reached 5.16%, raising concerns about borrowing costs and the returns investors demand from risky assets.
Why is the 30-year return important?
The US 30-year Treasury yield exceeded 5% on July 7 and remained above that level for 16 days. Accordingly Kobeissi LetterThis marks the longest rise above 5% since 2007.
Long-term yields reflect a variety of factors, including inflation expectations, Treasury supply, fiscal concerns and demand for government debt. The current rise suggests investors expect interest rates and borrowing costs to remain high.
Higher Treasury yields could put pressure on cryptocurrency by making lower-risk assets more attractive and increasing the expected return on speculative investments.
However, the return does not prove that investors are moving directly from crypto to government debt.
Previously Bitcoin (BTC) Consumer Price Index (CPI) responded positively after Came below expectations. A sustained move above 5 percent could weaken the recovery by reigniting concerns about inflation and tightening financial conditions.
Is the Hormuz crisis increasing returns?
Oil disruptions resulting from the conflict in the Middle East have increased inflation concerns, especially around the Strait of Hormuz. While Iran announced that it was closing the waterway, the United States continued its efforts to protect commercial transit.
This outage raised energy prices and reinforced concerns that higher fuel costs could slow the decline in inflation.
Crypto analyst DarkFost said:
This is where Trump needs to reduce tensions with Iran.
But de-escalation remains an analyst expectation rather than a confirmed policy outcome.
Despite the Treasury warning, funds traded on the US crypto exchange continued to attract capital. SoSoValue data showed $667.32 million in Net Inflows across tracked crypto ETFs for the week.
This was the strongest total since the week beginning May 8, when inflows reached approximately $771.2 million.
This difference suggests that institutional crypto demand remains resilient despite pressure from long-term yields.
Reducing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could ease oil supply concerns and ease some inflation pressure.
Low energy prices may support risk appetite, especially if Treasury yields decline along with inflation expectations.
According to Federal Reserve data, US M2 reached $23.05 trillion in May.
However, this money supply cannot be considered as capital waiting to enter crypto. For now, ETF inflows are showing resilience, while 30-year returns remain a caution against assuming a full risk transition.
