By the 19th century, approximately 70-80% of all jobs in the industrial world were in agriculture.
Most of the people were farmers.
By 1870, more than half of the men owned or worked on the farm.
Today, less than 1% of the US population works in agriculture.
Innovation and technology made farming more efficient, so people moved into factory jobs and eventually white-collar jobs.
There are many jobs that have been lost to technology over the years.
Telephone switchboard operators.
There were people lighting all the gas lanterns on the street by hand. These were replaced by electricity.
Before alarm clocks, people called doormen would go around tapping on windows to wake people up.
Ice cutters and ice dispensers have been replaced by cooling systems.
Milk distribution too.
Before computers came along, NASA used human computers that performed calculations by hand.
Elevator operators are no longer needed.
Typewriters and file clerks were replaced by word processors and computers.
Setting bowling pins by hand was someone’s job.
When automobiles replaced horses as the main means of transportation, they replaced blacksmiths, cart operators, and grooms. We now needed auto mechanics and taxi drivers.
In developing countries, assembly line workers have been replaced by robots and cheaper labor. When travel booking sites came online, many travel agencies went bankrupt. Toll booth collectors were replaced by machines or automatic toll booths.
There used to be video store clerks who would force you to rewind videos you forgot to rewind (and charge you for their trouble).
I could go on.
All these layoffs and more have occurred, but the unemployment rate has remained below 6% on average over the last 80 years:
The economy has changed. The workforce has changed. Things have changed. And business continued to grow.
I am not trying to minimize the disruptions caused by these technological advances. There was a painful transition as farmers moved from rural farming jobs to urban factory jobs. Many manufacturing Rust Belt towns emptied as labor shifted overseas to cheaper workers.
There will certainly be a painful transition for many white-collar roles as AI is integrated into the workflow. I’m sure there are jobs that will be impacted by AI that we’re not currently considering.
However, new roles will also be created. Artificial intelligence will make many people better in their current roles. This will lead to more opportunities.
Artificial intelligence will lead to more customers for many employees and businesses. Lawyers will be able to file more cases. Tax accountants will be able to file more taxes. Financial advisors will be able to deal with more clients. When bottlenecks are eliminated, throughput increases.
recently podcastMarc Andreessen explained that the tasks in your job evolve over time, but the jobs also survive despite these changes.
Notes, messages, etc. He uses the historical example of a manager who had a secretary to write. Now managers write their own messages and send them via e-mail. This is more efficient, but the secretary still has a job. They just perform new tasks. He thinks AI will do this for most workers.
The tasks themselves are not necessarily solutions to problems. Most businesses were created to solve a problem. People will still need to do this.
One of the biggest unintended consequences of the pandemic was the explosion in job applications:
I think AI can transfer this tendency to hyperdrive. The tools available will make it easier than ever to learn/build/code/grow a business faster than ever before.
There are currently tons of questions and no clear answers when it comes to artificial intelligence. Some jobs will likely be displaced. New employment will be created. Employees who know how to use AI correctly will be better in their current roles. People who don’t do this will likely be left behind or forced to adapt.
I don’t know what will happen, but I’m not in the utopia (total abundance, no one has to work) or dystopia (everyone is unemployed and broke) camp. I’m somewhere in the middle.
All I know is that people are resilient, the economy is dynamic, and astonishing results will come from this new technology, just like those that came before.
Michael and I talked about the potential impact of AI in this week’s Animal Spirits video:
Subscribe Compound so you won’t miss any episode.
Further Reading:
Pros and Cons of Artificial Intelligence
Now here’s what I’ve been reading lately:
Books:
