The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen throughout the first half of 2026, from a peak of $96,000 in January 2026 to a low of $62.7,000 at the time of writing. Although there were brief increases in value, these were short-lived.
Bitcoin ETFs revive bullish momentum
But the stress may now be decreasing. That’s because exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recently reported figures of $281.8 million. This was the first weekly entry since the second week of May.
according to Previous report by AMBCrypto197.4 million dollars flowed Bitcoin funds and $84.4 million flowed Ethereum (ETH). These The inflows also ended an eight-week streak of outflows that drained more than $7 billion from cryptocurrency ETFs.
Unfortunately, even after zooming out, the image remains somewhat sobering. This is because 12-month inflows dropped It has risen from a peak of $12 billion in October 2025 and $10 billion in late April to nearly $1 billion.
But buyers may now start to bounce back after two difficult months. While no one is ready to declare a bottom, the first two weeks of July appear to be the period when flows do not drop.
Geopolitical factors tainting the first half of 2026
To begin with, the conflict in the Middle East was the main reason behind Bitcoin’s bearish momentum. However, things appeared to stabilize in the second half of 2026. Oil is up more than 5%, moving towards the $75 resistance level. Bitcoin’s price remained relatively resilient.
In fact, resistance persisted even after President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran ceasefire, reigniting macro uncertainty.
How do Fed rates, DATs, and exploits also play out?
Additionally, the Central Bank maintained interest rates. 3.50% and 3.75% This suggests there is no rush to cut rates as inflation is still above target.
Another factor that harms the cryptocurrency market in the first half of 2026 is Increase in blockchain security incidentsThis figure increased by approximately 50% compared to last year, reaching 182. But overall losses fell nearly 60% to about $956 million, compared to $2.37 billion a year earlier.
With this, Strategy to sell 3,588 BTCThe decline in BTC holdings worth about $216 million to pay preferred stock dividends stirred the pot in July.
This alone suggests that investors are waiting for more convincing evidence that inflation is falling.
However, hope remains, with total distributed RWA market capitalization exceeding $33 billion, representing 200% year-on-year growth and a nearly 20x increase since January 2024.
This is because the growth of RWAs is highlighted in the table below: Birdeye Research’s 1st Half 2026 report It has significantly outpaced the 2.4x growth of stablecoins in the same period.
What lies ahead?
So, it is best to conclude: sub not approved by any of them.
As expected, the $7 billion breakout cannot be reversed by a single strong week’s entry. This sentiment is well reflected by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which is still in the “Extreme Fear Zone” at the time of writing.
Final Summary
- The second half of 2026 has brought new optimism to the market, but concerns still remain.
- Although Bitcoin ETFs have bucked the bearish trend, security breaches, price movements, and others are putting pressure on the market as a whole.
