Bitcoin rose above $64,200 in early trading on Friday, July 10, powering its recovery even as the Strategy sold Bitcoin at a loss.
Staying above this level next week may strengthen the recovery. But the real question is who is selling into the rally and at what price.
Strategy’s recent liquidations weighed on sentiment. Despite this, the average purchase price remains well above that of retail investors on Binance. This gap shifts attention away from the Strategy and towards the retail owners, who are now comfortably in the money and may choose to sell strongly.
Did Strategy’s Bitcoin sales really matter?
The strategy recently announced plans to sell some of its shares Bitcoin (BTC) holdings through him Digital Credit Capital Framework. The company said the proceeds will fund dividend payments and share buybacks.
On July 6, Strategy made its largest sale to date, selling 3,588 BTC for approximately $216 million. The sale was valued at around $60,000, approximately 20% below the Strategy’s average purchase price of $75,476.
Including the previous 32 BTC sale on June 1, the Strategy’s average disposal price reached $65,721. The average purchase price was $75,584, leaving the company with an overall loss of 13.06%.
While the market viewed the sales as bearish, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost argued that they reflected liquidity needs rather than a change in the Strategy’s long-term outlook.
A choice that reflects the company’s liquidity needs rather than market sentiment.
This view was consistent with the Strategy’s continued commitment to Bitcoin. The company still holds 843,775 BTC, which is roughly 4.2% of the circulating supply and is worth approximately $53.8 billion at press time.
Why should retail decide Bitcoin’s next move?
The same data suggests that retail activity may now have a greater impact on Bitcoin’s direction.
A comparison between the Strategy’s realized price and Binance’s retail cost basis revealed the difference. Binance holds approximately 30% of all Bitcoin held on the exchange, or approximately 2.38 million of the 8 million BTC held on exchanges.
The strategy had its last sell at $65,721. By comparison, retail investors spotted Bitcoin around $60,900, according to CryptoQuant data dated July 2, while Binance-linked addresses had an average cost base of around $57,000.
This has resulted in most retail owners making a profit at current prices. As Bitcoin approaches levels well above its average entry, profits become increasingly likely.
Spot demand already reflected this warning.
Binance only recorded net purchases of approximately $35.5 million; This relatively small margin allowed the market to rise only modestly. This weak buying pressure suggests that buyers have not yet fully realized potential sales from profitable retail owners.
If retail investors start locking in on gains, their selling activity could have a bigger impact on Bitcoin’s next move than the Strategy’s recent sell-off.
Final Summary
- The strategy sold Bitcoin at a loss to fund dividends and share buybacks but still holds about 4.2% of the circulating supply.
- Retail investors continue to profit comfortably, revealing their willingness to sell a more important signal for Bitcoin’s next move.
