Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a downward trend since October 2025. Since its all-time high of $126,000, BTC has lost 46% of its value in less than six months. There is no longer any doubt that it is a bear market.
However, it was the scope of the distribution phase that was at issue. In fact, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. recently found that large and mid-sized Bitcoin investors still hold approximately 68% of the BTC supply.
Short-term investors’ drawdown is high and any price rise is likely to be met with aggressive profit-taking and a breakout from the breakeven point. This has already happened once with the rejection of the $76,000 resistance.
Rebalancing of Bitcoin assets has not started yet
Cohorts with balances ranging from 100 to 10 thousand BTC were categorized by size. While their share of supply assets reached 68%, small participants holding 10 BTC or less owned only 17% of the supply.
Distribution and rebalancing from large and medium-sized investors Bitcoin Conglomerates between groups below the scale are needed to trigger a structural change. This would indicate a wider distribution and capitulation regime.
Another factor pointing to a deeper reset was the UTXO Profit Number Percentage. This metric measures the number of individual unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) that are worth more today than the value they were last moved to.
The 30-day and 365-day moving averages of this metric were at 69.1% and 87.5%, respectively. This has highlighted weakness, but does not mean a complete market reset. For context, the previous cycle’s 1-year moving average reached 55.7%.
In May 2019, the metric’s annual average fell to 63.8%, both well off the 87.5% mark. There is stress in the market right now. And by 365-day moving average standards, there may be more room for a complete structural reset.
When can the market bottom be expected?
Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto intelligence platform, used post-halving bull market periods and historical bottoms to predict the bottom of the current cycle.
The chart shows that the bottom may come 912-922 days after the last halving event. This puts the forecast cycle low in late September to early October 2026.
Final Summary
- Large and medium-sized investors hold 68% of Bitcoin supply, meaning wider capitulation can be expected in the next six months.
- Based on previous cycles, the bottom of the current bear market could come around October 2026.
