The first effects of the ceasefire and the interesting approach to tokenization, Web3 Thoughts of the Week.
CLARITY Act – tokenization legislation
“While the US Congress is debating how to embed tokenization into existing securities law and European leaders are creating legal frameworks around third-party assets, they are missing the larger shift in institutional capital.
“For years, global financial centers operated as complex markets trading assets produced elsewhere. But now, the jurisdictions that will truly capture institutional capital over the next decade will be those transitioning from trail to production.
“The competitive advantage has shifted from those who can trade the asset to those who can digitize it at the source. While the growth of funds like BlackRock’s BUIDL and Nasdaq’s new institutional rails is evidence of the optimization of secondary markets, they still remain sophisticated showcases for trading assets produced elsewhere.
“The next frontier for institutional capital is the factory floor. These are sovereign jurisdictions that actually own and produce the primary supply of tokenized real-world assets. When Saudi Arabia integrated Real Estate Registry on-chain, it tokenized the primary supply chain of the G20 economy. This local integration eliminates third-party packager risks that inhibit demand.”
“Predictions of a $19 trillion tokenization wave often focus on which network will gain trading volume, assuming asset supply is already available. The most difficult problem is generating the legal and digital presence of assets at the point of origin. Critical, high-value assets will only enter the chain if approved at the sovereign level.”
“The winner of the tokenization race will be the jurisdiction that has the will to industrialize its primary sovereign supply early.”
– Faisal Al MonaiCEO of droppRWA
Effects of the ceasefire
“Markets are acting as if the war is over, but now the hard work begins. Of course, the ceasefire finally brings good news for the region and we hope that it will result in the end of the war. But there is still a lot that is unresolved and uncertain.
“This involves fundamental questions: whether Trump has achieved his goals and, more importantly, whether the Strait of Hormuz will actually be reopened. For now, this is a fragile ceasefire at best.
“Brent has fallen significantly to around $93 a barrel, which is a relief. But how long will it take for it to drop below $80? The damage to the infrastructure is massive and will likely take months to repair. And the longer oil stays above $90, the more inflation will seep into the numbers, an effect that will already start to show in Friday’s CPI release.”
“For Bitcoin, like other risk assets, this has been a positive upside catalyst. However, at the current level above $71,000, it is once again facing strong resistance that it has repeatedly tried to overcome. If successful, we could see a rally towards $90,000 in the coming months. For now, the recovery is fragile.”
– Nic PuckrinCo-founder of Coin Bureau
“Bitcoin’s dominance is clearly visible in market pricing and ETF flows, but much less so on-chain. The most likely explanation for this is that BTC is increasingly used as a financial asset by investors who are not active on-chain.”
“The clearest evidence is in ETF flows: In March, net inflows favored Bitcoin over Ether by a 28:1 ratio. BTC market cap dominance also rose to a multi-year high of 56.1%. The on-chain signal is weaker.”
“Over the last seven days, fee generation was led by Tron at $6.9 million (+0.8% transaction growth, +10.0% user growth), followed by Solana at $4.0 million (-6.3%, +9.8%), BNB Chain at $2.2 million (-2.8%, +4.5%), Ethereum at $2.0 million (-2.6%, +3.9%), and Bitcoin at $1.1 million.” (-6.3%, +0.9%) In practical terms, this means users are still transacting and generating activity on other chains, while Bitcoin plays a smaller role in daily on-chain usage.
“Looking ahead, March headline CPI is expected to increase significantly compared to February, and energy inflation will likely rise above 3% on an annual basis. Interest rates markets have already priced in the Fed’s 2026 rate cuts, and unless the geopolitical situation worsens and oil prices rise above $120 per barrel, I do not expect higher headline inflation alone to shift expectations towards rate hikes.
“BTC’s moves and whether it can break above the $70,000 resistance will likely depend on how the situation in the Middle East develops. A sustainable move above $70,000 would likely require de-escalation, which would include the Gulf states and China negotiating with Iran and accepting some of its demands, such as guaranteed passage through the Strait of Hormuz. It would also not require further military escalation from the United States or Israel.”
“This is a fragile and complex outcome that will require alignment across multiple countries. Until then, volatility is likely to continue.”
– Aurelie BarthereNansen’s chief research analyst
