The top memecoins haven’t improved much from where they were. Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Pepe (PEPE), which are among the top four memecoins by market cap, remained within 2% of their prices a week ago.
While Memecoin (M) gained 10% in value last week, Dogecoin (DOGE) lost 3.8% in value.
Shiba Inu decreased by 0.51% compared to last week. Bitcoin’s recent loss of momentum has probably affected the most important assets of the memecoin industry. The lackluster short-term performance was a smokescreen.
Even if SHIB rises 10% or more next week, long-term investor sentiment will be severely bearish. Two measurements helped explain the pessimism behind the meme.
2 areas of concern for Shiba Inu bulls
The % supply at profit metric tracks the percentage of SHIB’s circulating supply at profit. At the time of writing this article, this rate was at 3.07%. For context, October 2023 saw 3.93% supply in profit; This was the lowest figure in recent years.
In February 2026, the metric was seen reaching 2.86%. Circulating supply has been at profit levels in the bear market lately. Deep holder losses meant that sentiment around memecoin was extremely pessimistic.
The MVRV ratio and its deviation from the all-time average can also be used to flag excesses in SHIB pricing. In the 2022 bear market, MVRV was 0.5 to 1 standard deviation below the mean.
This was an extreme deviation and lasted from May 2022 to January 2023. If the same trends repeat, the Shiba Inu could see the bear market continue until September 2026.
Low profitability and extremely low MVRV values confirmed that SHIB will enter a bear market for the next few months. There are even news like this: recommended ETF T.Rowe Price’s rise, which could extend to volatile assets like Shiba Inu, may not be enough to save memecoin from its downtrend.
The price structure on the higher time frames was as follows: downward trend. A bounce towards swing highs will present a selling opportunity and breakout type trades are unlikely.
Final Summary
- The circulating supply in profit and the extreme deviation of MVRV from the all-time average confirmed that the Shiba Inu was in a cyclical bear market.
- If historical trends repeat, the current bear market is likely to continue until September 2026.
