Is the worst yet to come for crypto?
From a technical perspective, the market is officially entering the second quarter. But we need to check where it is to see where it’s going. The first quarter closed with total crypto market capitalization declining by approximately 21%, further extending losses compared to Q4 2025, when it fell by approximately 24%.
In just six months, the cryptocurrency has technically lost more than $1.5 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC) This was not spared either, accounting for 60% of these exits; This is a sign that it is lagging compared to other volatile assets. Supporting this, the XAU/BTC ratio closed the first quarter up almost 40%, underlining BTC’s relative weakness against gold.
In short, despite recent optimism about Bitcoin’s “relative” resilience, it turns out that the cryptocurrency is still the weakest performer among asset classes in the first quarter. In this context, a recent post by US President Donald Trump could not have come at a more critical time.
President Trump suspended expectations for a ceasefire, warning of a possible serious attack on Iran’s infrastructure. However, more than the content, the “timing” of the post literally sparked a market frenzy. Notably, the US stock market will remain closed over the weekend, meaning the post is temporarily preventing a liquidation process.
But the real momentum change is in oil prices. Even before the shipment, oil was roiling global markets. Now layers of geopolitical risk have added further uncertainty. Traders and investors are likely to react as soon as the market reopens, making Monday a highly volatile day for stocks. But attention has turned to crypto: Is a major bloodbath coming?
Cryptocurrency fell into liquidity trap as market risk increased over the weekend
The crypto market’s nearly 21% decline in the first quarter was almost in line with oil prices.
This trend is expected to shape the market on Monday, with stocks in particular likely to react. Take NASDAQ (NDX) for example – It closed the first quarter down nearly 6%, recording its worst quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2025.
The culprit here is the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has created a massive oil supply shortage. The Strait of Hormuz, which provides approximately 20 percent of world oil exports, continues to be under serious threat. The impact is clear: Oil closed the first quarter up almost 70%, sparking volatility in risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
This is where President Trump’s latest post comes in, according to AMBCrypto. Once the increase becomes official, analysts expect oil prices to rise to $200 per barrel. In this context, the market reaction on Monday may be critical and the possibility of a sharp selling wave may seem high.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s positioning index It turned negative, indicating that short positions were returning. This is not random. Instead, this is a strategic move by investors who are positioning for potential downside in crypto once Monday’s session begins. Because the cryptocurrency is trapped in a heavy liquidity trap, even a small movement can trigger sharp price fluctuations and make the market more susceptible to any catalysts.
In this context, President Trump’s post is now a significant decline trigger. Stocks will react when Monday’s session begins, leaving the crypto at risk of a liquidation-driven bloodbath.
Final Summary
- Losses in the first quarter, negative positioning and liquidity trap pave the way for sharp downward movements.
- President Trump’s post and rising oil prices could trigger a major reaction in the markets on Monday.
