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Bitcoin (BTC) has oscillated at the $70,000 level since March 10. Despite macroeconomic market uncertainties, Bitcoin’s steady performance has been encouraging. Although the long-term trend remains bearish, it has shown some resistance.
One reason for this was that selling pressure from long-term owners was easing. The long-term sell-side risk ratio has fallen to October 2025 lows, indicating that LTHs’ profit and loss realizations have equal measures.
Although there is selling pressure from long-term investors was getting lighterhigher time frame Bitcoin The momentum continued its downward trend. The current rise may continue towards $80,000, but this should not surprise investors.
On-chain “stress testing” phase for Bitcoin
In a post CryptoQuant InsightsONE analyst He noted the variety of conditions that must be met to confirm the market bottom. Historically, these signals have accompanied a period of “maximum distress” for long-term holders. They tended to mark the final capitulation before heavy long-term accumulation began to push prices higher.
Metrics to monitor included Realized Price and MVRV ratio for the 6-12 month owner group.
The Realized Price – UTXO age ranges metric reveals the average cost basis based on how long different groups of buyers have held Bitcoin.
The analyst noted that historically realized price bands should flatten their curves. In other words, the price needs a long consolidation phase to allow the average cost base bands to decline.
The 6-12 month band emphasized that the supply burden is heavy. Therefore, the current Bitcoin resilience will probably not reach a full recovery.
Another factor was the MVRV rate. At the time of writing this article was at 1.29. Historically these values have been a DCA zone for smart money but have not signaled the worst of the bear cycle.
MVRV values below 1 were needed to signal capitulation and maximum pain. We have not yet reached this point of maximum despair.
Two paths to Bitcoin bottom
Interestingly, the analyst also laid out two paths to the bottom of the Bitcoin market for this cycle. It may be a black swan event. Alternatively, institutional capital inflows could suspend Bitcoin at $60k to $80k for a “boring” year, which could wear out investor patience.
MVRV pricing bands appear to follow previous cycle trends. At 1.41 it was below 0.5 standard deviations (dotted blue) but had not yet reached the cycle bottom depths represented by -1SD.
To achieve this, MVRV values of 0.909 or lower will be needed. Both the December 2018 and November 2022 cycle lows fell below the lows of their price ranges before recovering.
If the same scenario happens again, Bitcoin could fall below $50,000 for a few weeks to inflict maximum losses on long-term investors before rebounding.
Final Summary
- While Bitcoin showed some strength by remaining above $70,000, global market indices posted losses.
- The current rise was within a broader bearish regime. Investors shouldn’t bet on a long-term recovery just yet.
