Bitcoin has been trading below the Forecast support level of the Grand Trend since January 2026. Since the trend collapse, BTC has experienced strong downward pressure, falling below both long-term and short-term realized prices.
Amidst this extended, weakened structure, crypto analysts expressed greater pessimism and predicted a prolonged decline based on realized price data.
Bitcoin continues to show cracks
According to Darkfost, BTC remained below the realized price excluding the supply, which has been inactive for two months.
The analyst noted that the realized price after adjustment was approximately $72,500. These price levels now act as immediate resistance.
Looking at the previous bear cycle, Bitcoin is kept below this cost basis for six to 10 months. If the historical pattern repeats, BTC may see more difficult months before it regains and flips $72,500.
Typically, when market prices fall below realized prices, this means most buyers are at a loss. Often an increase in the number of loss holders increases the risk of selling, which, if realized, results in greater losses.
According to Checkonchain data, the Short-Term Realized Price, currently at $ 82.3 thousand, proves this. This means that end buyers are now facing significant losses, increasing the group’s risk of capitulation.
In fact, realized losses of short-term holders were pegged at over $300 million per day, with an average of 5 thousand BTC sold at a loss. On March 29, STH group reported a loss of $372 million, confirming the downward trend.
Historically, continued loss realization has further weakened the market, prolonging the price decline.
Can BTC avoid further slippage?
Bitcoin has traded in a bearish pattern for nearly five months and has remained below realized price for two months, reflecting strong downward pressure.
As a result, ADV/DECL dropped below 50 to 35.78; This suggests that most funds have entered the declining asset phase. This means that sellers are largely dominating the market and no bullish attempts are taking place due to lack of support.
Additionally, the EMA line hovered around 25-35, indicating persistent weakness and further confirming the weakness of the trend. These market conditions leave BTC potentially facing further losses on price charts.
Therefore, if the market price continues to maintain the realized price while STH is sold, BTC may drop to 62 thousand dollars. However, the realized price on Binance is currently around $60,490, providing strong support to the market.
As long as BTC remains above this level, it will prevent further slides and make room for a reversal. But first BTC needs to reclaim and flip $72k, then target STH’s realized price of $82k to see significant gains.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin remains below $72,500 realized price excluding inactive supply for two months.
- BTC needs to stay above $60,490 to avoid further slides and retrace $72,500 to make a significant gain.
