The West Asian crisis led to rising oil prices and fears of rising inflation. This meant that institutional traders sought to hedge against further downside, as evident by increased selling demand (bearish bets).
More negativity was possible. Short-term investors were intent on preserving their profits or limiting the potential of any rally by trying to exit the market at breakeven.
But the price action on the higher time frame was at an interesting point where a price bounce cannot be completely ruled out.
Explaining Bitcoin’s trend expectations
Oscillation movements in the 3-day period were captured in white. The last bounce in the middle of the downtrend occurred in February and is not complete. There’s a reason it’s considered incomplete.
In October 2025, when the swing structure is in an upward trend, Bitcoin It made a double peak at $124.4 thousand. The failure to sustain the uptrend was an early warning sign of bull weakness.
Later, the swing structure turned bearish after the $107.2K low was broken in early November.
Consider the price action since February. The $60,000 low resulted in a bounce that failed to break above the 50% retracement level.
Many analysts consider the area above the 50% retracement to be “premium” and a move into this area is more likely to result in the next bearish move.
The threshold was $78.9k and the final bounce only reached $76k. After this jump, Bitcoin has not yet climbed below the $60,000 low.
Expectations for Bitcoin’s next move
Like the double top in October 2025, Bitcoin’s failure to reach new lows in recent weeks has been an intriguing development. Consider the $65.9K and $62.9K levels (dotted cyan).
The swing structure of the H4 time frame was bullish but the price was stalled near the $65.9K swing bottoms. A session below $65,618 is needed for the 4th half expectations to turn bearish.
Similarly, the 3-day session needs to close below $60,000 to indicate that the long-term downtrend will continue.
Until this happens, it is valid to expect Bitcoin price to jump into premium value territory above $78.9K. This being the case, the market is waiting for an improvement. catalyst To make the next move.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin’s 3-day and 4-hour time frame price charts have revealed some counterintuitive bullish expectations around the lower time frame structure.
- The significance of the swing low at $65.9K and its defense last week means the bears are not fully in control of the short-term trend.
