Bitcoin extended its decline for the sixth consecutive month after reaching an all-time high of $126,000. While the correction is already significant, on-chain and market data suggest it may not be over.
The price is approaching a critical support zone where the majority of long-term investors have previously gathered. A break above this level could open the door for a move towards $50,000.
Corporate sales increase downside risk
Recent 1% decrease in corporate services Bitcoin (BTC) It comes amid growing pressures on Treasuries, including debt obligations and persistent market weakness. Although modest in size, this shift is notable given the typically long-term orientation of institutional owners.
Latest statements followed by AMBCrypto It showed that at least four institutional organizations reduced their Bitcoin exposure between March and early April.
Mara Holdings led the sale in March by liquidating 15,133 BTC worth over $1 billion. Riot Platforms and Empery Digital followed, transferring a total of 2,295 BTC worth approximately $156 million as of April 2.
Despite these sales, institutional entities still control approximately 1.16 million BTC, worth approximately $77 billion. However, this large position is becoming increasingly vulnerable as Bitcoin trades near the total cost base of a significant group of long-term holders that align with institutional accumulation levels.
Long-term ownership cost basis comes to the fore
On-chain data from the UTXO Realized Price Age Breakdown highlights a critical development. The metric provides insight into investor positioning by tracking the average purchase price of Bitcoin across different holding periods.
Current data shows Bitcoin is approaching its $63,049 cost base for those who saved 18 months to two years ago. This level now serves as a potential turning point.
With Bitcoin trading at $66,794, the margin above this group’s cost base has narrowed significantly. A sustained decline could push these holders into losses and increase the likelihood of defensive selling.
Short-term holders present an additional layer of risk. Investors who entered the market last month remain particularly sensitive to volatility and are more likely to exit their positions under pressure, reinforcing downside momentum.
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric reinforces this trend. A value of 0.6 indicates a sharp compression of unrealized gains across the network.
As profitability declines, the likelihood of capitulation increases, especially if prices continue to weaken.
Weak capital inflows limit recovery potential
Market structure data point to another constraint: limited capital inflows.
Spot market activity shows that demand has been weak in recent months. Bitcoin recorded approximately $8.04 billion in Spot purchases in the last 120 days, with only $6.17 billion coming in in the last 90 days.
This level of demand remains insufficient to absorb ongoing selling pressure or support a strong recovery.
At the same time, macro uncertainty continues to suppress risk sentiment. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and global economic instability have led investors to adopt a more cautious stance and reduce capital allocation to risky assets such as Bitcoin.
Unless inflows strengthen meaningfully, the market may have difficulty stabilizing, leaving Bitcoin exposed to further declines in the near term.
Final Summary
- Public and private entities reduced their Bitcoin holdings by about 1% as selling pressure increased.
- Bitcoin is currently trading close to investors’ cost basis accumulated 18 months to two years ago, increasing downside risk.
