Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to $65.5 thousand on Friday, March 27. This was the lowest it reached earlier in the month at $76k. Friday’s losses led to lengthy liquidations of nearly $400 million in the crypto market and $172 million for Bitcoin.
In a post on X, CoinGlass stated that Open Interest increased while price and CVD decreased. They signaled a long jam together. In fact, last week’s sell-off and the recent long squeeze have effectively driven most of the long positions out of the market.
The 30-day liquidation map showed that there is another cluster of highly leveraged longs up to the $64k level that could be followed next.
Analysis of on-chain metrics revealed that accumulation is still struggling against distribution pressure. The market appeared to be in a stressful and transitional phase where full distribution had not yet begun.
In other words, it may be time to decide once again. bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s internal conflict has not yet been resolved
crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. He observed that the 30-day net position change for long-term holders has been positive since January 2026. LTH supply measured 14.2 million BTC at the time of writing and continued to accumulate despite the recent correction.
The transition to sales had not yet begun. The last time this group went on general sale was in July 2025 and prices were around $120 thousand.
At the same time, the LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio fell below 1 in late February. This meant that long-term holders, on average, lost money when selling. The analyst noted that the “loss zone” that historically comes during periods of prolonged stress is active on the chart.
One of the differences between this situation and previous stressed market conditions was that the BTC price was significantly higher than in previous LTH loss phases. This meant the sell-off was not indicative of a broad LTH cohort capitulation, but was driven by localized stress from those buying near the 2025 peak.
The two metrics showed a difference: Long-term holders continued to accumulate, but some of the LTHs were being sold at a loss.
If the 30-day net position change turns negative, it will indicate a shift towards full distribution.
It is not yet known whether loss-making sellers will concentrate as prices fall or whether capitulations will end. If the LTH SOPR can rise above 1 again, this could indicate that the current forced selling may ease.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin’s market sentiment appeared extremely pessimistic as prices rebounded to local lows of $65.6K.
- Long-term ownership behavior has not yet transitioned to a full distribution regime.
