Volatility following the announcement of US-Iran peace talks caused Bitcoin (BTC) to rise 3.85% in five minutes on March 23. Bitcoin rose from $68,574 to $71,216 during Monday’s New York trading session, reaching a local high of $71,817.
The move also breached the “non-trading zone” that crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out in a post on X. 1.72 million Bitcoins were traded between $65.6k and $70.6k, making this a hotly contested territory.
Bitcoin started trading in this region once again. However, Bitcoin buying opportunity highlighted last weekend Still valid according to actual price measurements.
Decoding BTC’s defense of the $68K zone
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr argued that the defense of the $68,000 level could see a rise towards $80,000. The rationale revolved around the realized price.
The realized price of the ETF was $79.9 thousand and the spot price of Bitcoin was $70.7 thousand. This was a discount of around 11.5%. At the same time, capital flows into ETFs last month reduced the realized price from $80.5 thousand to $79.9 thousand. In other words, new capital inflows last month were too weak to meaningfully drive down the overall cost base.
Therefore, unless ETF capital inflows increase significantly, the $79.9K area will be a stiff resistance in the event of a rally in Bitcoin.
The cost basis for the group of Bitcoin holders with 100-1k BTC was $67.9k. During the trading session on March 23, the leading cryptocurrency briefly dropped to $67.4K and then rose above $70K.
The defense of the realized price of the 100-1k holder group underlined the resilience of the holders. A move below this price level could cause the largest holders to become more uneasy, which could increase pressure on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin bulls’ position looked weak on March 23 when the Taker Call-Ask ratio briefly fell below 1. Although the 7-day moving average is below 1, it has climbed to 1,025 at the time of writing.
Over the past month, the 7SMA has been greater than 1 to indicate continued BTC buying is continuing and prices are rising. The increase in taker rate could be another positive sign for short-term bulls.
Final Summary
- The Bitcoin ETF and major investor group realized that prices shed light on where the next BTC price trend could go.
- The rise in the buyer bid/ask ratio following Monday’s volatility was another point in favor of short-term bulls.
