Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Bitcoin’s underlying structure continues to strengthen. In the early hours of Tuesday, the asset briefly reclaimed $76,000, a level last seen on February 4, and continued its recovery momentum.
The basis of this move is the change in supply dynamics. On-chain data shows a continued slowdown in Bitcoin inflows to centralized exchanges, which are key places where selling pressure usually occurs. This trend indicates a decreasing intention to sell across the market.
Long-term investors tighten supply at key levels
Long-term holders have emerged as the dominant force behind it. Bitcoin (BTC) improving the basics.
Alphractal tracking data from Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), a metric used to measure whether old coins are being spent, shows that long-term holders remain largely inactive. In fact, the old supply remains off the market.
More importantly, this inactivity has pushed conglomerate behavior to a four-year extreme that precedes a strong bullish phase, last observed in 2022.
This reflects a clear shift in belief: Investors are choosing to hold rather than distribute; this is often a signal that expected returns outweigh existing selling incentives.
Binary CDD, a supply-adjusted variant of the metric, confirms this trend. The fact that it continues to show minimal distribution from long-term holders reinforces the view that structural selling pressure remains limited.
This tightening supply environment has coincided with a 12.84% price increase since March 9, supporting a broader upward trend.
Supply conditions remain supportive despite ESR increase
From a supply perspective, market conditions remain constructive, although not devoid of nuances. Foreign Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) increased to 0.13 after an upward trend for the last two days.
Under normal circumstances, a rising ESR indicating a higher proportion of Bitcoin held on exchanges indicates increased selling pressure. But current price action tells a different story.
Bitcoin’s price continued to rise along with the ESR, creating a departure from typical behavior. Rather than signaling a distribution, this suggests that currency inflows may not immediately translate into sales, but rather a more complex repositioning of supply.
A closer look at foreign exchange reserves provides greater clarity. Total Bitcoin held on exchanges continues to decline, indicating that the general trend is still in favor of supply contraction.
This dynamic limits the amount of liquidity available for sales, reducing downside risk even if short-term sentiment changes.
Demand shows first signs of strengthening
While supply continues to shrink, the continuation of the rise depends on the acceleration of demand.
Institutional flows offer an important signal. Accordingly SosoValueSpot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded six straight days of net inflows since March 9, in line with the start of the current rally.
These inflows total approximately $968.94 million, marking the longest accumulation streak ever recorded in 2025. This shift signals renewed institutional involvement and stronger sentiment at current price levels.
While this demand has not yet triggered a definitive breakout, continued inflows could provide the necessary momentum to clear the $75,000 resistance zone and establish a stronger uptrend.
Final Summary
- Long-term Bitcoin holders are increasing their belief, signaling bullish confidence in the near term.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded six consecutive days of inflows, the longest buying streak in more than a year.
