The market narrative is finally changing From local to macro base.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s rise above $66,000 sparked a wave of bullish sentiment.
Many analysts argue that the down cycle may already have begun. While BTC remained stuck in consolidation between $60,000 and $65,000, the debate largely revolved around whether this was just a local bottom.
But now the focus is slowly shifting towards the $70,000 region.
Looking at the graphs, it seems that this change is not completely unfounded.
According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin once again showed the same three technical signals that have historically coincided with macro cycle bottoms.
These signals include the monthly RSI falling to around 43.65, the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) falling to roughly -71, and Bitcoin trading near its 50-month moving average.
Remarkably, the pattern was repeated in previous cycles.
Installation previously appeared around $235 in 2015 Bitcoin (BTC) It continued to rally more than 8,300%.
It approached $3,333 before a 1,900% gain in early 2019. The same technical stack followed in late 2022, shortly after Bitcoin crashed to near $15,000, returning to around $16,000 before the market rebounded by 675%.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s correction to $58,000 last month triggered the same setup once again.
So, if history is any guide, this alignment has consistently marked one of Bitcoin’s strongest long-term accumulation zones, adding weight to the idea that the market may already be transitioning from a local bottom to a macro bottom.
Liquidity remains Bitcoin’s biggest test
The continuation of the uptrend ultimately depends on liquidity, and this is where Bitcoin’s rise may still face a significant test.
From a technical perspective, stablecoin dominance has increased to around 13% and the gap has narrowed, with Ethereum dominating the market at over 10%.
At the same time, total stablecoin market capitalization fell by more than $10 billion last month, indicating that capital is still flowing out rather than flowing back into crypto.
Particularly on-chain data supports this trend.
As the chart below shows, Bitcoin remains above $65,000 but the liquidity required to sustain the rise appears to be decreasing. While stablecoins have left exchanges for 35 consecutive days, Bitcoin has yet to see a meaningful increase in spot accumulation.
In other words, the price is rising but liquidity is not following.
Against this backdrop, shift The move from the local bottom to the macro bottom may still need stronger confirmation.
Bitcoin breaking above $66,000 is technically bullish. However, the lack of fresh liquidity suggests that the move may struggle to maintain enough momentum for a decisive breakout to the $70,000 region.
