The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been negative for 60 consecutive days since May 19, which is currently putting huge pressure on Bitcoin.
According to the latest readings from CoinGlass, the index experienced the longest streak on record at -0.1025%. This shows that Bitcoin has been trading at a lower price on Coinbase than on Binance for the past two months.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Such a long streak was last seen between January 16 and February 24 and lasted approximately 40 days. This was followed by a notable 30-day period leading up to the market crash on October 11.
.
However, such prolonged negative readings are concerning as they historically correspond to times when ETF outflows occur.
This also comes in price Bitcoin It traded at $63,935.02, up 1.8% from the previous day.
However, the decline from $76,954, which was last seen on May 19, raises concerns. RSI and MACD indicators showed that despite the rise, the bulls were not strong enough.
In contrast, the Bitcoin ETF saw maximum outflow during the same period. However, ETFs, with net inflows of $197 million from July 6-10, ending the eight-week uptrend.
Bitcoin’s risk index provides an interesting nuance
Meanwhile, this year the US Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin Risk Index are very similar. As the appetite for risky assets decreased and liquidity tightened, Bitcoin entered a risk-off phase as the dollar strengthened.
The only significant recovery of the year occurred with the decline of DXY, which created a more advantageous environment. Naturally, one of the main macro headwinds for Bitcoin may be easing as the dollar weakens and the Bitcoin Risk Index cools.
However, analysts predict that the bottom of the cycle will not occur immediately but within the next few months.
Similarly, another analyst says that Bitcoin’s failure to hold the $64,000 support level confirms his predictions of additional declines.
Is 100 thousand dollars possible?
However, Kalshi investors give Bitcoin a 10% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of the year.
This marked the lowest implied probability of the event on record. He suggested that investors saw only a one in ten chance of this outcome.
At the same time Fidelity Research analyst Zack Wainwright believes that the majority of the circulating supply is held by investors with strong beliefs rather than active traders.
However, more than 40% of these long-term holders’ supply is underwater, meaning they were purchased at prices higher than Bitcoin’s current market value and are now facing unrealized losses.
Final Summary
- Although Bitcoin has seen an increase in the last 24 hours, it fell from $76,000 to $63,000 between May 19 and the time the news was published.
- Many analysts believe that Bitcoin has begun to form a bottom and further declines are expected.
