Bitcoin (BTC) differed between spot and derivative markets. AMBCrypto reported that its apparent demand metric is negative through 2026.
The Coinbase Premium Index has also been in the red in recent weeks, indicating a lack of demand from institutional players. Meanwhile, trends in increasing leverage have been noticed, leaving the market vulnerable to a liquidation cascade.
Available bear cycle has not yet reached its previous lows. Stablecoin exit from exchanges was another clue defensive positioning From crypto market participants.
This continued lack of demand was a warning, but it also led to a potentially higher trajectory in the short term. Here’s what price action and short-term holder dynamics say about potential. bitcoin price jump.
Buying pressure from short-term investors dominates BTC as it did in February
The downtrend structure saw a continuation signal in the last week of June with the breakout of February lows. After setting a new low $57,800Bitcoin rose even higher.
From a technical analysis perspective, this jump could extend to: $73.2k – $77.5k area, pocket of gold at Fibonacci retracement levels.
The Bitcoin Realized Pressure Model metric compares the realized buying and selling pressure of short-term holders to current BTC prices. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. He used this metric to show that selling pressure has been compressed for now and buyers have an advantage, indicating an accumulation phase.
The average buying pressure score in February was as follows: 61%compared to sales average score 22%. The situation changed as BTC recovered. Selling pressure in May 43%compared to purchase score 11%.
In June and July, short-term investors’ buying pressure dominated again. 37%-46%While sales are being squeezed 16%.
Until these scores worsen, a rise similar to the one that began in February may be possible.
This metric separates different groups of short-term holders’ purchase prices. The realized price of the 1 week, 1 month group was as follows: $61.6 thousandThe average purchase price for the 3 month-6 month owner group was as follows: $74.9 thousand.
The newest group of buyers is profiting, but the older groups (1 to 6 months) are underwater 15%.
It is possible that this group could expect a larger price jump. 70 thousand dollars before you start selling in large numbers. In such a scenario, a short-term rally would once again be met with a selloff.
The analyst concluded that the current market price is in an accumulation zone with a “moderate risk bias”. a rollback 71 thousand dollars The level would be a notable confirmation of the bullish pivot.
Final Summary
- The accumulation of derivatives and the lack of comprehensive, long-term owner accumulation trends posed a threat to the long-term recovery.
- A popular crypto analyst has warned that short-term holder accumulation could push prices towards $70,000.
