Matt HouganInvestment Director at Bitcoin Asset ManagementHe believes that the cryptocurrency market is on the verge of a significant change. In a note dated July 1, 2026, he explained why he expected a new bull market for Bitcoin and gave a more comprehensive explanation. digital asset It will begin this fall after a necessary market clearing period.
Hougan’s perspective sounds like this: bitcoin It recently experienced renewed volatility, falling below $60,000.
Much of the recent pressure stems from developments in the environment. Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and perpetual preferred stock is STRC.
Launched to generate high returns while trading near its $100 face value, STRC attracted significant investor capital during the previous rally.
Strategy He used these proceeds to aggressively purchase Bitcoin, becoming one of the market’s most consistent large-scale buyers.
Like Bitcoin prices However, after correction, STRC’s trading price fell sharply (to about $75); This raised questions about dividend sustainability and triggered broader market unrest.
The strategy responded by changing its approach: increasing the dividend rate to 12%, introducing a framework that allows periodic payments. bitcoin The sales to meet liabilities while maintaining cash reserves signaled greater flexibility in STRC’s trading going forward.
Hougan sees this easing not as a crisis but as a classic feature of market cycles.
Bull markets often attract capital seeking returns through creativity. financial structures and leverage.
When conditions change, this excess must be removed before a durable base can form.
He likens the current situation to the relaxation of premiums in some sectors. bitcoin Investment products emerged years ago, which ultimately helped pave the way for recovery.“
Hougan wrote that volatility in STRC is a natural and important part of the crypto cycle.
He added that he is convinced that the bottom is closer than ever and that we will enter a new bull market in the fall. bitcoin sue.
For years, the Strategy served as an almost one-way buyer. Hougan expects this role to diminish, with the Strategy potentially buying or selling depending on market conditions rather than acting as a permanent accumulator.
Instead, he sees traditional institutions coming to the fore: global banksasset managers, pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds and financial advisors.
Signs of this change are already visible in the expansion. Bitcoin ETF availability on major platforms, new product launches from companies like Morgan Stanley, and growing interest from government-level and international organizations.
Hougan suggests a few markers investors can watch to confirm a bottom: MSTR Discount trading in Bitcoin assets, extreme readings on fear and greed sentiment indicators, and negative funding rates reflecting intense short interest in derivatives markets.
Recognizing that prices may fall further in the short term,
Hougan emphasizes the long term investors We should focus less on pinpointing the exact low point and more on the eventual rise of the cycle.
He argues that the current phase eliminates structures that are no longer compatible with Bitcoin’s maturing market.
note reflects BitselThe broader view is that institutional adoption continues to provide structural support below the surface even in price weakness.
As the unraveling process continues, Hougan sees the conditions alignment for renewed momentum later this year. The message for investors is one of cautious optimism: the pain of deleveraging may be nearing its end, potentially paving the way for the next leg higher. bitcoin And crypto-.
