A recent analysis predicts contrasting trajectories for European private equity and venture capital assets under management (AUM) over the next five years. Drawing on draw fund data and established forecasting methods, the research team reports. Pitch Book It highlights how recent market dynamics will shape the region’s private capital environment.
Pitch Book He also noted that European VC AUM is expected to contract significantly, reversing the strong expansion seen in the previous decade.
In the basic scenario, VC Assets are expected to fall from $431.4 billion at the end of 2025 to $311.4 billion by 2030.
This decline is largely due to persistent weakness fundraisingSince the peak in 2022, both capital has been increased and the number of funds has been decreasing every year. Even if activity picks up, current trends offer little optimism about a rapid recovery in overall assets.
The recent history of the sector also reveals this picture. VC AUM rose to $422.5 billion in 2021 amid record deal and exit activity, then pulled back and reached a new peak in late 2025.
But inconsistent deal flow, subdued exits and limited distributions to limited partners (LPs) have created headwinds.
While returns frequently fall below historical averages, many startups face slower valuation growth, write-offs or concealment of pricing details.
The post-pandemic boom has given way to a more restrained environment, and significant liquidity shortages continue to pressure the ecosystem.
Scenario modeling reinforces caution. Best- and worst-case scenario estimates for 2030 range from $406.2 billion to $243.9 billion; This means that even optimistic results remain slightly below 2025 levels.
The high volatility reflects concentration risks (especially AI-focused deals focused on larger companies) and the outsize influence of large funds.
while AI investments This rise, which has accelerated sharply over the past 18 months, makes major exits difficult to achieve in Europe compared to the US and leaves future performance uncertain.
In contrast, European PE AUM will continue to expand, albeit modestly.
The base case sees growth rising from $1.5 trillion in 2025 to $1.7 trillion by 2030; This equates to a compound annual growth rate of roughly 3%.
Accordingly opinions According to PitchBook, this steady rise reflects the resilience of the asset class over the past decade; During this period, AUM expanded year over year, from $534.6 billion in 2015.
PE activity has proven to be more stable than VC, with deal values reaching records in 2025 and capital raising reaching new highs in 2023-2024.
Negative and positive scenarios for PE It shows AUM holding at $1.5 trillion or climbing to $2 trillion; This indicates reliable growth in size based on fundraising and performance trends.
Factors such as multiple expansion, margin management in an inflationary environment, and the ability to pass on costs will play a key role.
Evolving structures, including secondary funds, permanent funds and greater access to superannuation, public wealth and retail investors, could further support expansion.
Geopolitical tensions and interest rate Volatility brings risks given PE’s reliance on leverage, but the overall outlook remains positive.
Geographically, England It is expected to maintain its dominance. It is expected to represent 31.5% of European VC AUM and 38.8% of PE AUM by 2030 (approximately $137 billion and $673 billion respectively).
France, GermanyThe Netherlands and Israel will remain important venture capital participants, while Luxembourg, Sweden, France and Switzerland will be prominent in PE.
suitable tax Even as capital moves towards broader innovation hubs, regimes and fund placement practices favor specific jurisdictions.
As we look ahead, PE‘s consistent progress contrasts with VC’s difficulties resulting from post-eruption adjustments. artificial intelligence Results, interest rates and geopolitical developments will greatly affect the results.
Broader participation across fund sizes, regions and investor types could help Europe narrow the gaps with its global peers. Pitch Book The research report concluded that the forecasts point to maturing, diversifying private equity segments rather than a uniform progression.
