Pitch Book Senior Analyst Franco Granda argues: SpaceXapproaching Starship Flight 12 It represents the most important pre-IPO milestone for the rocket giant. Not scheduled before May 19th from new date Orbital Launch Pad 2 at Starbase inside Texastest marks debut of fully upgraded V3 Starship Architecture. with the company itself IPO reportedly targeting a valuation of over $1.75 trillion, above its previous $1.5 trillion benchmark, could significantly shape the outcome of the flight investor The emotion during the roadshow.
Pitch Book In his research report, he stated that Flight 12 will include Booster 19 and Ship 39, the first vehicles produced according to the V3 standard.
This iteration nearly triples payload capacity to low Earth orbit to over 100 metric tons, includes next-generation Raptor 3 engines, and introduces design improvements needed for future orbital refueling.
The mission profile was deliberately simplified to a splash-only test in the Indian Ocean, carrying 22 Starlink simulators and heat shield imaging hardware. No booster catches are planned for the brand-new car’s inaugural outing as a prudent de-risking move.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. SpaceX already exists invested Roughly $15 billion was spent on Starship’s development; this was well above the $400 million spent on Falcon 9. R&D spending has increased to $3 billion in 2025 alone.
Success through maximum dynamic pressure, stage separation, and controlled reentry will strengthen confidence that commercial Starship operations can begin in 2027, paving the way for dramatic launch cost reductions of approximately 90 percent and enabling the next phase of growth for Starlink, cislunar logistics, and NASA’s Artemis lunar program.
But valuation climbed without new operational proof points. PitchBook’s sum of the parts analysis pegs fair value at around $1.5 trillion; This implies that the current $1.75-$2 trillion target includes a significant narrative premium tied to long-term platform potential.
A perfect flight will confirm this optimism. A partial success (the booster performs well but the ship disappears on reentry) is probably tolerable given the architectural leap.
However, an early catastrophic failure, especially one that damages pad infrastructure, could invite sharp scrutiny just weeks before pricing and S-1 filing expected in mid-to-late June.
SpaceX‘s underlying financial strength acts as a buffer. The company is expected to generate $7.5 billion in 2025 EBITDA with double-digit free cash flow margins, fueled by Starlink momentum and the recent xAI merger that expands its story beyond the aviation space.
Still, at targeted 110-125 times 2025 revenue investors are buying 2040 economy Today. Starship remains the main driver of this rise: a fully reusable super heavy lifter that could industrialize orbital access and open up viable cislunar commerce.
incoming note Pitch Book It outlines Starship’s rapid development over the previous 11 flights, from explosive V1 tests in 2023-2024 to V2’s accelerator capture milestones in 2025.
Hard-earned lessons were taught with each iteration, but timelines were constantly slipping; Flight 12 itself was originally planned for March. Granda sees the V3 test as the symbolic “big leap” needed to sustain the premium narrative that investors are being asked to undertake.
Pitch Book While SpaceX’s bottom line and market leadership stand alone, Starship’s progress IPO operates on proven practice or future promise.
Have a crowdfunding proposal you’d like to share? Submit a proposal for consideration using our Submit a Tip We can fill out our form and share it on our website!
