Dune Analytics stated that Polimarket has transformed forecasting markets by offering ultra-short-term contracts that prioritize speed and automation. According to a detailed on-chain study conducted by Dune AnalyticsLaunched in September 2025, these “fast markets” have quickly grown from a niche experiment to a major driver of platform activity. What started as 15-minute and hourly contracts now account for 20-25% of overall trading volume, transforming the entire ecosystem into something close to high-speed derivatives trade.
Dune Analytics He pointed out that the acceleration was remarkable. When 5-minute markets launched in early February 2026, they immediately cannibalized the longer express market segments.
In just one week, 15-minute volume fell 45% as $258 million flowed into new ultra-short contracts.
5 minutes in early March markets It reached a weekly peak of $385 million, surpassing the $126 million recorded in 15-minute contracts.
Over an eight-week period from mid-February to late March, 5-minute trading generated $2.3 billion in notional volume; This was nearly three times the $795 million accumulated over seven months in 15-minute markets.
This shift underscores investors’ desire for even shorter time frames, compressing forecast windows to levels once unimaginable outside of traditional futures and perpetual contracts.
bitcoin It remains the undisputed leader, commanding 77% of flash market volume ($410 million of $532 million weekly) at the end of March. Ethereum follows with 13%, while Solana and XRP are hovering around 5-6%.
Newer entities like dogecoinBNB and Hyperliquid are still gaining traction but remain marginal.
Inside crypto-In markets alone, quick-time contracts (up to 5-minute weekly up/down formats) have increased from 40% of total crypto volume last September to over 80% today, while multi-day or hit-price formats have remained relatively stable.
On-chain data reveals another important trend: Automation now dominates the fastest segments.
In 5- and 15-minute markets, bots account for 55-62% of volume, compared to only 31% in slower 4-hour, daily or weekly contracts.
casual retail tradersBy contrast, it represents only 4-5% of activity in the shortest markets, rising to 41% in longer markets.
Bot transactions average only $6-7 each; This reflects the high-frequency, low-size strategies provided by Polymarket’s Creator Program and third-party integrations via Telegram and Discord.
Frequent traders (those who place more than 100 trades) now consume approximately 40% of 5-minute volume, blurring the line between advanced users and semi-automated bots.
On January 7, 2026, the initial introduction of taker fees in short-term crypto up/down markets and certain sports has proven to be lucrative.
In just 83 days, Polimarket It generated net fee income of $23.7 million, translating to an average of $286,000 per day and approximately $104 million annually. Approximately 20-25% of wages are redistributed as follows: US Dollar is making constructive discounts to tighten spreads and increase liquidity.
bitcoin Ethereum alone contributes 58% of fees along with Solana and XRP A total of 17% is added. Sports events, most notably March Madness NCAAB, contribute an additional $1.5 million, while newer categories such as La Liga and high-profile tweet markets are now expanding the fee base.
Dune’s analysis paints a clear picture. PolimarketFlash markets have evolved far beyond traditional event-based forecasting.
For shorter periods of time, with bot-heavy participation, bitcoin concentration and explosive fee generation, these contracts increasingly reflect the mechanics of perpetual futures and options markets.
While the “prediction market” label persists for regulatory and branding reasons, data shows a platform that has become a sophisticated, high-speed trading venue powered by real-time crypto- sensuality. As deadlines get shorter and fee structures expand, the line between predicting the future and trading in real time continues to blur (or at least meaningfully merge).
