Less than 72 hours have passed since the ceasefire, and its durability already looks in doubt.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, US President Donald Trump recently said that Iran is not fully complying with the terms of the ceasefire.
In such a volatile environment, calling this a persistent bull market is still an overstatement simply because sentiment increases risks.
Ethereum (ETH) reflects this uncertainty in real time. Following a 6.28% rally on April 7, ETH has since retreated around 2.2%.
While the pullback may seem modest on the surface, this suggests that the continuation bid is weakening at higher levels. Instead, the positioning data continues to show signs of distribution.
According to Lookonchain, an ETH swing trader recently exited his remaining 1,000 ETH position, locking in a $1.44 million loss.
In fact, since January 27, 2025, the trader has completed four swing trades (three of which were losses), bringing his total drawdown to approximately $2.45 million.
Now, when you add ETH worth $ 8.3 million, which was reported to be sold by the Ethereum Foundation, the bearish rhetoric begins to increase a little more.
In this context, the 63% jump in Ethereum’s positive Funding Rates (from the previous level of 0.0024) is starting to look like a relatively extended positioning move.
The logic is simple: macro volatility, technical weakness, and distribution cues all hold up against increasing long-term risk.
In such setups, the price usually does not remain stable for long. Instead, if the support fails it will either trigger a long squeeze or a rapid pullback if buyers step in and absorb the supply.
The real question is whether Ethereum bulls can step in here and turn this into a bear trap.
Ethereum’s long bias increases as staked supply begins to resume
The use of leverage in volatile conditions is rarely just speculation. Instead, it tends to be driven more by faith.
Ethereum’s perp market is starting to show this kind of shift. Derivative signals are improving despite the uncertain macro environment.
Especially Ethereum Buyer Buying/Selling Ratio Binance broke above 1 with a monthly average of 1,016 and remained in positive territory for several consecutive days.
For context, a reading above 1 means buyer buying volume is higher than buyer selling volume; This indicates continued aggressive buying in perps, with positioning skewed towards leveraged long positions.
When combined with Grayscale staking 83,200 ETH, this starts to look less random and more like a structural flow change.
However, when zoomed out, the picture changes. Despite the influx of staking, Ethereum’s total staking supply saw its sharpest decline in nearly a month; 570,000 ETH came out of staking, reducing the staking rate from its all-time high of 31.9% to 31.4%.
Fundamentally, the market shows a marked difference.
For context, falling staking levels indicate reduced long-term conviction as well as potential profit taking or risk reduction from validators. This, along with the recent capitulation, indicates that supply will return to the market without a strong bid to absorb it.
In this context, leveraged long positioning looks more like a speculative play.
While Ethereum’s current setup is leaning towards neutral to weak, the recent pullback looks like a distribution-driven move rather than a bear trap, with pressure now shifting towards the $2k support level.
Final Summary
- Poor macro stability and mixed on-chain signals create a contradictory setup.
- Leveraged long-term accumulation against softening demand conditions increases the risk of a move towards the $2,000 support.
