XRP is currently near $1.3, reflecting continued weakness following its failure to regain levels above $2. But as positioning imbalances continue to unravel, the pressure runs deeper than just price.
During the rally towards $3.66 in 2025, heavy retail inflows increased short-term holder risk, which is now triggering reactive selling. As prices fell starting in late 2024, realized losses accelerated and consistently ranged from $20 million to $110 million per day.
These losses are concentrated in more recent groups and indicate forced exits rather than strategic rotation. Meanwhile, XRP remains below the $1.43 level, keeping approximately 56% of its supply underwater.
As this bulge continues, recovery is met with resistance, but gradual resorption may stabilize the structure over time.
XRP’s cost-based overhang limits recovery
This persistent imbalance becomes clearer when viewed through cost-based positioning, which shows where the pressure is actually coming from.
While the price of XRP fell from $2.5 to a range of $1.2 to $1.3, large supply clusters continued to be concentrated between $1.9 and $2.2.
As prices attempted to recover into this zone, porters in the 2024-2025 entry period approached breakeven, creating steady pressure on the sell side.
The increase in losses in February continued to be distributed into March, rather than a single capitulation.
At the same time, some of the demand absorbs supply near lower levels, preventing deeper crashes. This creates a slow turnaround dynamic where recovery remains limited but the structure gradually gets stronger as weaker hands come out.
Altcoin bottoms are shifting towards slow absorption cycles
This cost base resistance is doing more than capping XRP; It is starting to redefine how altcoin bottoms will shape. While the price remains below the realized $1.43 level, recovery efforts remain near sustained supply.
At the same time, approximately 69% of the supply is in wallets under one year, with 36.9% concentrated in the 6-12 month range. These groups remain sensitive to price swings, so any rally invites exit-driven selling as investors approach breakeven.
Meanwhile, roughly 56% of XRP’s supply remains underwater, keeping the pressure active but not excessive. This creates a slow rotation where weak hands emerge and stronger hands absorb.
As this progresses, recoveries become longer, but the same process gradually establishes a more stable base.
Final Summary
- Daily losses of $20-110 million and 56% underwater supply continue the selling pressure of XRP at a cost base of $1.43.
- Supply clusters at $1.9-2.2 and 69% were kept in the short term, extending bottom formation timelines.
