Bitcoin (BTC) continues to offer mixed directional signals even as bulls try to regain control. At the time of writing, BTC was approaching the $70,000 level after trading below that level for nearly eleven days.
Despite this recovery attempt, underlying demand conditions remain fragile. Both retail participants and long-term holders appear to be reducing risks, raising questions about the sustainability of the current move.
Visible demand highlights structural weakness
Bitcoin AApparent Demand, a key metric used to assess whether newly exported supply is being absorbed, shows April started on a weak footing. This metric measures the difference between Bitcoin issuance and the volume of coins that have been inactive for more than a year.
Latest data shows that apparent demand has fallen to negative 86,000 BTC, equivalent to approximately $5.95 billion at the time of writing. This suggests that the newly supplied Bitcoin is not sufficiently absorbed and reflects weak market demand rather than strength.
There is a clear relationship between apparent demand and price action at the moment.
A persistent negative trend in demand is often paralleled by downward price pressure. Notably, this marks the weakest reading in more than a month and reinforces concerns about the underlying market structure.
Long-term owners are moving to distribution
Long-term holders contribute to this weakness. This group, historically associated with accumulation and low sales activity, now appears to be disintegrating.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) has reached 1. When this metric prints 1, it signals that old coins have been moved; this is an event often associated with sales activity by long-term owners.
If this behavior continues, it could weigh more on Bitcoin’s price outlook. Whales take the opposite stance. As Bitcoin attempted to recover, major investors increased their holdings in the market.
Spot average order size data shows whales, particularly larger holdings, have dominated trading activity on major exchanges in recent sessions. Their orders account for a significant portion of volume, positioning them as key drivers of near-term momentum.
Given Bitcoin’s recent recovery, this activity suggests that whales have been tactically bullish over at least the past 48 hours.
Whale activity alone may not sustain rise
But relying on whale accumulation as an independent signal remains risky. Whale behavior is often reactive and can change rapidly based on market conditions.
AMBCrypto was previously reported He noted that in the first quarter, Bitcoin investors holding 100 to 10,000 BTC recorded a total loss of $30.9 billion, and whales accounted for an average daily loss of $337 million. This context underscores that large owners are not infallible and that periods of accumulation do not always translate into sustainable uptrends.
With long-term investors taking distributions and apparent demand reflecting weak supply absorption, the current whale-driven momentum may lack the fundamental support needed for a sustainable recovery.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin’s apparent demand fell to minus 86,000 BTC worth about $5.95 billion, indicating poor absorption by supply.
- As whales accumulate, long-term holders disperse and this creates a difference in market behavior.
