Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a descending channel since its peak of $126,000 in October 2025. In the midst of this prolonged downtrend, the king coin STH fell below its Realized Price, indicating that all new buyers are at a loss.
Checkonchain data showed that more than 45.8% of the total supply is currently at a loss, with only 54.12% at a profit. Mounting losses have pushed most market participants, especially whales, to capitulate.
Bitcoin whales lost $337 million in the first quarter
Investors holding between 100 and 10,000 Bitcoin It made a loss of 30.9 billion dollars in the first quarter of 2026. Among these losses, whales recorded the largest loss at $337 million per day, according to CryptoRover.
This marked the highest daily loss rate since the 2022 bear market, signaling one of the most aggressive distribution cycles in history.
Long-term holders of Bitcoin contributed approximately $200 million daily. Historically, this type of sustained loss realization has not marked the bottom of the cycle but has occurred before deeper declines.
In previous cycles, daily lows averaged $25 million as realized losses cooled. At current market rates, this market is still a long way from reaching such low levels.
However, LTH and STH supplies held at a loss remained extremely high. According to Checkonchain data, the LTH and STH supply held at losses amounted to an average of 4 thousand BTC per day from March to early April.
As underwhelming supply continued to rise, investors lost confidence and sought to cut their losses, as evidenced by recent losses.
What’s next for BTC?
Although recent market sentiment points to strategic tax-loss harvesting, it also warns of intense external forces driving the market toward capital preservation.
Increasing losses and loss realizations significantly stressed the market and increased downside risk. Looking at the upward and downward volatility indicator, it seems that the market remains indecisive.
Upside volatility is 1.9, downside volatility is 1.6 and the spread is -0.10, indicating a slight downtrend. At the same time, the momentum trend showed weak momentum and neither trend was strong.
Historically, such market conditions have preceded prolonged consolidation. If prevailing sentiment persists, BTC could extend sideways movement between $70K and $65K
However, if loss realization accelerates while demand weakens, another market crash could occur and possibly drop to $62,500.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin’s realized losses reached $30.9 billion in the first quarter, and the whale’s realized losses exceeded $337 million.
- BTC continues to remain indecisive with decreasing volatility despite increased loss realization.
