Given a new pattern emerging from the activity of traditional investors in the US, Bitcoin’s trajectory over the next few weeks could be bearish.
This is behind ongoing geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel and Iran. Given the deep risks to US traditional investors Bitcoin (BTC), With a total net asset value of $95.21 billion, the behavior of these companies carries significant weight and requires close analysis.
A familiar pattern is forming around Bitcoin’s weak ETF inflows
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded one of the lowest daily inflows of 2026, collecting just $7.61 million per day.
This marks the third time inflows have reached minimum levels and the second lowest of the year. It falls between the $6.84 million debut on January 26 and the $15.20 million debut on February 13.
Although positive entries were recorded, both previous events showed early signs of buyer exhaustion. This may allow time for the press to read another fractal in the making.
First, after a $6.84 million inflow on January 26, Bitcoin’s price fell from $87,630 to $83,910 in four days, and $1.49 billion in assets were sold. Then, on February 13, after an entry of $15.20 million, it fell from $68,780 to $64,470, resulting in sales of $403.90 million.
If this fractal holds, Bitcoin could face another major selloff. The median of the last two events projects outflows of approximately $949.24 million.
Negative premium puts US investors in bearish camp
The bearish trend becomes even stronger when the sentiment of crypto investors in the US is taken into account.
This sentiment can be measured using the Coinbase Premium Index. It is an indicator that compares the buying pressure on Coinbase, a predominantly US-based exchange, against Binance, a globally dominant platform.
At the time of writing, the premium was in negative territory at -0.04, indicating that the buying pressure from US investors has weakened. Historically, readings in the red zone have been associated with price declines; This reading is no exception.
If the premium continues to drift into negative territory, this could mean that the market is in a downward trend overall. This will also increase the likelihood of US investors withdrawing funds from Coinbase and, by extension, through asset managers.
Institutions do not leave the market!
While institutional Bitcoin assets have fallen by $69.94 billion since the October 8 peak, the tokenized asset market has moved in the opposite direction.
For example – data from RWA.xyz revealed that the real-world asset (RWA) on-chain market has grown by $7.85 billion since the broader crypto market began to decline, bringing its total valuation to $26.60 billion. US-based assets have dominated this segment so far.
This trend points to a deliberate de-risking move by some institutional investors remaining active in the market but shifting to tokenized real-world assets rather than maintaining exposure to Bitcoin.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin’s US traditional investors bought $7.61 million worth of Bitcoin but left signs of a possible pullback ahead.
- Bitcoin’s premium on Coinbase turned negative, confirming that selling pressure was increasing.
